Iziphi izici zangaphandle zihlanganisa ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho ... iziphi izici zangaphandle ukuthuthukiswa komnotho

Kutfutfukiswa umnotho emakethe akanjalo emgceni locondzile, lapho yonke into ihamba nombala futhi ngokungaguquki. Ngokuvamile, it is kokudabula ups njalo nezimbi eziye ivaliwe ngaphakathi kohlaka izigaba ezilandelanayo. Imvelo cyclical ukuthuthukiswa komnotho kubonakala ekushintshashintsheni emakethe ukuthi has a imvelo gqwa.

Umjikelezo kwezomnotho kanye izigaba zalo

Imfundiso yokuziphendukela ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho kuchazwa zonke ebhukwinitifundvo ngale ndaba iphrofayli. Industrial nezikhathi ihlaziye ezifana ososayensi adumile njengoba Dzhozef Kitchin, Klement Zhuglyar futhi Saymon Smit Kuznets. Zazithi umjikelezo kwezomnotho - ushintsho umsebenzi ibhizinisi isimiso sezomnotho, elinesimo wave-like futhi isikhawu esiphakathi kwamazwe efanayo imvelo.

I umjikelezo kwezomnotho uhlukaniswe izigaba ezine:

• Inani Eliphakeme (ukunyukela). ukukhiqizwa Amandla enwetshiwe: emakethe linikeza imikhiqizo emisha kanye nezinsizakalo. Employment, waqaphelisisa ukukhula imali.
• Ukuwohloka (kokucindezelwa). Ukukhiqizwa kancane kancane kuyancipha, ngokulandelana, kunciphe ukusetshenziswa, lo ukumnika of izimali, i-GDP futhi engenayo.
• Ukuwohloka (esibucayi). Umnotho ifinyelele phansi, futhi isikhashana esesimweni esinjalo.
• Revival. Ukukhiqizwa lukhula, ngokuletha izimali.

Cyclicity umnotho ezweni elithile ingase lingafani inqubo efanayo ezingeni umnotho womhlaba kanye macroeconomy iyonke.

izimbangela yangaphakathi

Imiphumela ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho wabonakaliswa ezingeni isipiliyoni. Phela, isigaba esisha ngasinye akuyona ikhophi eyodwa odlule: isintu ifunda emaphutheni nokwenza izinguquko esikhathini esilandelayo. Yiqiniso, ukuze ube omkhulu ithonya ngentuthuko cyclical nezinqubomgomo kuleli zwe. Ukwabela ezifana izici yangaphakathi ezivela umnotho isimo sika:

1. Ukukhiqizwa ukusikeka kubangelwa ukukhululwa ngokweqile kwezimpahla. Zibeka funa ongaphakeme ngenxa ukutholakala eliphezulu amanani aphezulu. Eqinisweni, ukuthengisela idlula funa.
2. Izinto ezintsha. Isibonelo, nge Njengoba sekunama-computer emakethe, abakhiqizi imishini yokubhala ziqala ukuvala ibhizinisi noma washintsha inhlokodolobha ekuthuthukiseni neminye imikhakha.
3. Umgomo wezimali. Ukukhululwa izindodla zemali kudala ukwehla kwamandla emali ngesikhathi esifanayo bikho yobukhona babo kuholela ukwehla ekukhiqizeni kanye nokwehla utshalomali.

Izizathu yangaphakathi zihlanganisa uhlobo lwabantu isimo, ukuthuthukiswa kwezenhlalo sphere, imfundo, isiko State, nokunye. Zonke lezi zici nazo ukuboniswa izimpilo zabahlali abavamile.

ithonya yangaphandle

Iphinde linendima ebalulekile. iziphi izici zangaphandle zihlanganisa ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho:

• isinyathelo sezempi. Phakathi zinqobe, emnothweni wakhiwa phezu "igagasi" esisha - ukukhululwa kanye nezinhlamvu imishini zabashokobezi. Ukuheha Manpower eyengeziwe kanye nezinsiza. Lapho impi iphela, ukwehla kwenzeka.
• Ukuqamba. Sinenkosi umthelela omkhulu amanani, utshalomali okufunekayo ukusetshenziswa.
• Umthelela nezinye izinto. Ngokwesibonelo, lapha ungakwazi zihlanganisa kuzuba amanani kawoyela emhlabeni jikelele.

iziphi izici zangaphandle ingase ihlanganise ukuthuthukisa umnotho kanye nomgomo wezangaphandle, bezingelwa uhulumeni, kanye nezokuxhumana nakwezombusazwe isimo nomsebenzi wakhe eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke. Isethi yezizathu zangaphakathi nokushukunyiswa kusukela ngaphandle edonsa isimo lapho ihlala khona umnotho, kunjalo futhi ngqo wakhona kuthinte izinga nekhwalithi ingxenye. Kuyacaca kutsi umnotfo cyclical, "libe" kule nqubo eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi bathembele ngokuphelele ezintweni kuye.

Umnotho kanye neMpi

izinxushunxushu zezombangazwe, izimpi zombango noma ayehlasela kwelinye izwe ensimini ka amandla - konke lokhu kuholela womuntu, abantu kanye zezimali ezidingekayo. ezimpini waphula hhayi welinye ipulazi zeminyaka, kodwa ezikhathini eziningi ezinkulu futhi elimazayo wazibonakalisa XX leminyaka. izimpi zezwe ezimbili kanye nempi eyodwa civil wazamazama isimo angaphezu kwelilodwa: abantu abaningi ababulawa bebengamalungu, ngamabhomu futhi ihlaselwa izimboni kwabhujiswa. Izakhamizi ukulamba yokuntuleka yokukhosela, kusukela bonke amandla waphonswa ukukhiqizwa yezikhali ezicitshwayo, amathangi kanye izibhamu.

Impi umnotho kukhona imiqondo engahambelani. Igalelo lokuqala kwasani ochitha wonke impumelelo yesibili. Esikhathini emlandweni wezwe akukho Ngokwesibonelo, lapho isimo impi yezikhali, kuya ezolimo isimo asekelwe ezingeni eliphezulu futhi neze ezidingekayo. Kulokhu, kubalulekile impi yombango kuyingozi ikakhulukazi anonya nakakhulu futhi elimazayo hhayi kuphela emnothweni kodwa futhi abantu ngokwabo. Lapho umzalwane izingalo umzalwane uyaqhubeka, kuhambisana ubudlova ikakhulukazi evelele futhi inzondo, esithinta ngqo ezingeni yokubhubha, kuhlanganise kwezomnotho.

Ngokwesibonelo Libya

Ake sihlaziye indlela impi azoboniswa ukuphila Libya. zinqobe kulelo zwe uyaqhubeka 2011, phakathi abalandeli umholi ababulewe Muammara Kaddafi uhulumeni Ke amatutu iNational Transitional Council. Phakathi nezingxoxo abantu abayizinkulungwane 50 baye bafa ngenxa minyaka emine edlule, ababaleki baba izikhathi 10 ngaphezulu. Izinombolo bayaqhubeka bekhula ngokushesha. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi umonakalo kwezomnotho ziyahlukahluka: IMF uthi kunabantu abangaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane 7.7 zamaRandi, ezinye izinkampani kokukhuluma baphokophelele $ 15 bhiliyoni uwoyela umkhakha, okuyinto yanda futhi kwaba umondli eyinhloko abantu, ke ilahlekelwe u- $ 50 bhiliyoni ..

Njengoba izizathu zangaphandle, ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho ngokuyinhloko empini, kumele kuphetfwe njengoba lokhu isici ukuthonywa isimo kuleli cala. With ukuthuthukiswa imibhikisho mass, amandla ohlwitha amabhizinisi, izibhelu behlomile ngamabhomu umnotho uwile phansi ngendlela. Umnotho ngacishe ngayeka: abantu wasiyeka ukukhiqizwa, manje umgomo wawo oyinhloko - ukuthola iqiniso futhi ukusinda.

Indima igolide omnyama

iziphi izici zangaphandle zihlanganisa ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho kanye okuthiwa uthuthumele uwoyela - okungazelelwe izinguquko amanani okudla. Ngokwesibonelo, ngo-1973, e-United States ukuthi kukhona abanikezeli igolide black emakethe yezwe Cartel OPEC kuye kwaholela ekwandeni izindleko imithombo. Lokhu kwaba isiqalo enkulu obumbi bomnotho e ngemva kwempi. E-US, ukwehla ekukhiqizeni eyathatha iminyaka engaphezu kwemibili futhi zaba kakhulu ngendlela 5%.

OPEC zihlanganisa ezifana amazwe Arab: Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, e-Iraq, Egypt, Arabia futhi Abu Dhabi. Ngesikhathi umkhandlu jikelele, banquma usike izimpahla fuel emazweni ukuthi ukusekela izinqubomgomo ka-Israyeli. Ohlwini, ngaphandle Melika, futhi hit Japan futhi iningi eNtshonalanga Yurophu. Umnotho kwemibuso yomhlaba ehamba phambili, lapho bathembele igolide elimnyama, wacindezeleka, ngoba intengo umphongolo Avuka $ 2-3 15. Kwakuwusuku ngqa emlandweni, lapho ngetinhloso tetepolitiki wasebenzisa isikhali uwoyela.

emisha

Imvelo cyclical ukuthuthukiswa komnotho kubonakala lapho ososayensi usungula into entsha, emikhulu futhi zisebenza kahle. It is, kunalokho, kuba nomphumela omuhle ukukhiqizwa inyuka, kuthuthukisa izinga umkhiqizo nokunye. Ngezinye izikhathi izixazululo ezintsha nje phenduka emnothweni ekhanda layo. Ngokwesibonelo, "ibhomu" kwaba ukwakhiwa kojantshi kwezwe yokuqala. Kanjani amathuba amaningi emnothweni wavula icebo. Manje ungakwazi ukuletha izimpahla ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka kwaba ayizinkulungwane ezilé kude. Ukukhiqizwa liye lenyuka. Abantu baye bahileleka eziningi imisebenzi: ngalona ujantshi, kanye namafemu ezaqala bakamalalahlengezela evulekile yonke imibuso yezwe.

Njengoba singabona, izimbangela sangaphandle ukuthuthukiswa cyclical komnotho konke ezintsha. Uma beveza indlela entsha, inikeza ithuba ukwandisa utshalomali, eziningi letitsintsa imali. Kulesi ukuchuma ngeke kube umphumela walo oqondile waba kuvulwa. It is phetho indlela emisha, okuyinto emjikelezweni zamanje kuholele umnotho Selilonke esiphezulu yentuthuko.