Umthelela lwezijeziso emnothweni Russian. Imiphumela ukunqunywa unswinyo. Umnotho Russian namuhla

Kulo nyaka, emnothweni Russian ngaphansi kwengcindezi omkhulu wamazwe omhlaba. izinyathelo ezingokoqobo Kusetshenziswe amazwe lapho isibuyele eRussia, kuvetwa e tinhlobo letehlukene unswinyo. Kuyini yobuntu bazo? Uyini umthelela unswinyo emnothweni Russian? Imaphi amathuba avulekayo WaseRussia ngenxa yezinguquko imvelo bangaphandle?

Ingqikithi unswinyo

Ngokusho umphakathi uchwepheshe iphuzu ezivamile buka, ukunqunywa unswinyo, yalahla iRussia ngenxa ngokuyinhloko uhlangothi kwezombusazwe Russia mayelana nenhlekelele Ukraine. uthi Western, eziningi zazo bayingxenye NATO, kubhekwe izenzo engamukeleki of iziphathimandla zaseRussia maqondana eCrimea nasempumalanga izifunda Ukraine, okuyinto, ngokusho emazweni Atlantic Bloc, kukhona imisebenzi pro-Russian amaqembu ahlomile.

Njengoba unswinyo abanjalo bangabaphostoli kwezomnotho nakwezombusazwe. Ingxenye yokuqala uwuhlobo oluhlukile of ukuvimbela ngosuku lwesibili - ukwethulwa izikhulu nezinhlangano ezingokomthetho efanele unswinyo uhlu.

periodization lwezijeziso

Cabanga indlela ezilandelana ngayo eyenziwa unswinyo, yalahla iRussia. Izazi zikholelwa ukuthi ukusebenzisa iphakethe lokuqala izinyathelo wafakwa isinyathelo ngokushesha ngemva Russia asekelwe inhlolovo eCrimea nesifunda kufakwe ubulungu bayo. uthi aseNtshonalanga baye kubhekwe izenzo neziphathimandla yale nhlonhlo, futhi kanye isikhundla emthethweni Russian. lamakhoyili ohlobo Okwalandela unswinyo baxhunywe, abahlaziyi bathi, nge yokukhuphuka ngokwengeziwe isimo e-Ukraine.

Izijeziso: kuyinselele emnothweni Russia

Yini kungaba nemiphumela lwezijeziso umnotho Russian? Ochwepheshe uqaphele ukuthi obukhulu ezingavela yokungenisa. Iqiniso lokuthi emnothweni Russian kuncike ngempela ku ukungenisa ubuchwepheshe okusezingeni eliphezulu, imikhiqizo ubunjiniyela, imithi, kakhulu nokudla. Abalingani eyinhloko Russia kwepahla kukhona nje -EU amazwe, lezo abaye basisebenzisa unswinyo, yalahla iRussia. Uma ingxenye kwezomnotho zezinyathelo olufanele iyoba kuHlelo nemvelo, ukushoda imikhiqizo amazwe, ochwepheshe bathi, ungathathi eside.

Ufuna zimali

Umthelela lwezijeziso emnothweni Russian ezingabonakala ngokucacile kuyofikwa ku isici abatshali zimali angaphandle. Ikakhulukazi, kungenzeka zathiya credit nezilinganiso Russian Federation, iyona inkomba eyinhloko elikhangayo wezwe dolobha angaphandle. ziyamaniswa nokungangeni ukwehla kungaholela Ukwehla GDP, osomnotho abakholelwa. umnotho Russian namuhla, abahlaziyi bathi, kuncike kakhulu ku-dolobha angaphandle. Zokudayisa amasheya RTS kanye MICEX bagcwalise zezimali kungenxa yokungabikho ekhangayo ukutshalwa kwezimali angaphandle.

Nokho, ochwepheshe bathi, inhlokodolobha angaphandle kungase kungabi Lokudabuka entshonalanga. Kuyinto Kungenzeka yini ukuthi indawo zimali kusukela EU futhi US kuzothatha isikhathi esingakanani, yithi, capitalists we emazweni e-BRICS, okuyinto, ngokusho abahlaziyi abaningi, manje umbimbi waseRussia. Futhi ngenxa yokuthi izilinganiso aphansi ngaphansi izindlela athuthukiswe e-US kanye EU akakwazi ukudlala indima ebalulekile isici utshalomali.

Unswinyo kanye nezindlela amabhange azisebenzisayo

Esikhathini esingabizwa usukela ithonya unswinyo olubhekiswe ohlelweni Banking eRussia? Kulesi wemboni, abahlaziyi bathi, lungaba ukuvela izinsongo umnotho wezwe kakhulu. Iqiniso lokuthi Russian ohlelweni Banking is ngakho bafakwe emhlabeni (okuyinto yena, ngokuyinhloko kulawulwa US nabasizi balo Western), ukuthi bezimali angaphandle empeleni ukufinyelela ukhiye izindlela zokuphatha kuye. Ama-Akhawunti ye amabhange Melika nawaseYurophu ngenkuthalo esetshenziswa amabhizinisi Russian. Futhi uma amazwe credit nezinye izikhungo zezimali Western unqume ukumisa amafa, kungase kubangele, ochwepheshe bathi, umonakalo elisemqoka kuya amabhizinisi Russian ukusebenza amabhange angaphandle.

Unswinyo (EU) ziye onikezwe ngobukhulu Russian-yasebhange izikhungo zezimali, ezifana VTB, Sberbank futhi VEB. Ikakhulukazi, izakhamuzi EU kusukela ngasekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, kwathiwa banqatshelwe ekuzuzeni izinhlobo ezithile izibambiso kwalezi zikhungo. Ngokusho abahlaziyi, practice lokhu kusho into eyodwa kuphela - lezi amabhange Russian besakwazi ukufinyelela izimakethe capital. Futhi ngenxa yokuthi bayaqabukela kungaba nezinkinga nokukhokhwa izikweletu izibopho zamanje, ukubhaliswa imali entsha kanye nokutshalwa.

Visa - eRussia?

Enye icala umthetho engokomfanekiso kakhulu mayelana nezindaba ezifana umthelela unswinyo olubhekiswe Russian uhlelo yasebhange, angabhekwa ukukhiya izinhlelo ngobukhulu yokukhokha zomhlaba - Visa and MasterCard - amakhadi asebhange kwezikhungo eziningana zezimali eRussia, njengokuthi "Sobinbank" Bank "Russia" "SMP Bank". Khokha usebenzisa iziteshi international ekuzuzeni, amakhasimende zalezi amabhange bahluleka. Nokho, izazi ziyavuma ukuthi inqanyuliwe ngokuphelele emakethe Russian of Visa and MasterCard ngeke. Uma lokhu kwenzeka, kunosongo ukuzinza EU uhlelo lwezimali.

Omunye umphumela unswinyo e kwamabhange kungaba nomkhawulo abolekise izinkampani Russian eNtshonalanga kuya. Imigomo loans amabhange Western, ezimweni eziningi, kunokuthembela Russian Federation (ikakhulukazi ngenxa aphansi zenzalo). Nokho, umthelela ngokoqobo unswinyo olubhekiswe aspect zebhizinisi udumo kungase kungabi okuphawuleka kangako abalulekile uma osomabhizinisi bazokwazi basebenzisane kwezinye izimakethe ngokuya sokubolekwayo. Omunye ethembisayo ochwepheshe Russian ubona inguqulo Chinese.

zonke nhlobo amabhange?

Siza amabhange Russian ngokuya Central Bank ilungele unswinyo. Ikakhulukazi, abezindaba eshicilelwe isitatimende kubaholi Central Bank ukuthi ngamazwe lwemali izinqolobane kungenziwa baqashwe uma kunesidingo le njongo. Amabhange elikhulu WaseRussia yamemezela ukuthi bakulungele unswinyo. ubuholi Sberbank, ikakhulu, umemezele ukuthi umshado uye izinsiza ezanele, ukuphathwa isipiliyoni kanye izinga longcweti ukuqhubeka izimo zezomnotho nezombusazwe zamanje. "Gazprombank" futhi VTB futhi sibaqinisekisile umphakathi ukuthi izenzo US kanye EU ngeke kuthinte ukuzinza kwezimali ezikhungweni. Ngakho, umthelela unswinyo emnothweni Russian njengengxenye kwamabhange kungase kungabi okuphawuleka kangako abalulekile.

Unswinyo kanye nokwenzeka

Ngokwezazi ezithile zezomnotho, unswinyo EU - izaba ezinhle ukusungulwa izindaba emnothweni Russian, okuyinto, esenziwa orientation esinamandla zokuthumela uwoyela, akuyona ekuthuthukiseni okushesha njengokungena ayengakwenza.

Neqiniso enkulu, abahlaziyi bathi, kuyisici esihlupha nje yokungenisa efanayo. IRussia izinsiza eyanele - kokubili ngokwamandla okuphehla ukukhiqizwa futhi izinto zokusetshenziswa, futhi ngokuya ingxenye yesayensi ukukhiqiza omningi izimpahla amazwe kusuka phesheya.

izimpendulo Abazama

Yiziphi izindlela ngawo Russia bangase bakuphikise unswinyo? Okokuqala Kuyaphawuleka yokutholwa ngo-2006, ngisho nangaphambi kokuba waqala ukuthuthukisa kwesisekelo sobala crisis Ukraine, umthetho ophathelene izinyathelo ezikhethekile bemvelo kwezomnotho, angasetshenziswa uma izwe ngeke abe nomuzwa wokuthi kufanele aphendule izenzo ekhubazekile ukuthi banciphisa izithakazelo Russia, ezingeni kwamaZwe. Ngakho-ke, izinsiza eziyisisekelo zomthetho ukuthi kungenziwa efakwe ekuphenduleni ukunqunywa unswinyo, yalahla iRussia, abakhona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunobufakazi bokuthi e takhiwo Federal Assembly of umsebenzi ku-ukudalwa izenzo elisha elingokomthetho, okungase bandise RF zokumelana ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngamazwe. Ikakhulukazi, kunenkolelo ukuthi imithetho emisha wawuhlanganisa namalungiselelo ngokuvumela ekuthathweni kwempahla ise Russian Federation izinkampani zangaphandle (kokubili komphakathi kanye nezinkampani ezizimele).

Impendulo unswinyo

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi izizathu ukwethulwa unswinyo neziphathimandla Russian zibale ngesisekelo imibono yizikhulu eziphezulu, okungasekelwe ndawo futhi kuphambene logic, zokumelana ngokumelene amazwe aseNtshonalanga, ofana no-isinyathelo Russia, abangu wawusasebenza. Ikakhulukazi, ngesikhathi igagasi lokuqala izinyathelo ezifanele zamazwe ngamazwe uhulumeni waseRussia wanquma ukwakha uhlu abantu kokuba izakhamuzi Western, ngubani bancishwa entry kuya ensimini WaseRussia.

Lapho Visa and MasterCard, njengoba sishilo ngenhla, saphela ukukhonza ikhadi amabhange eziningana isiRashiya, iziphathimandla Russian Federation wanquma ukuqinisa umsebenzi endaweni yokuqala, ekuthuthukiseni indlela yokukhokhelana ezweni, futhi okwesibili, ukuheha emakethe ye Russian Federation of the Ministry Chinese Railways - UnionPay, okungase babe nesincintisana sína ukuba abaholi emhlabeni wamanje. Lokhu kuzodala Visa and MasterCard kukhona okukhulu, ngokusho kwabanye osomnotho, umonakalo - emakhulwini ezigidi zama-dollar.

Okusemqoka kakhulu iphakethe Russian of zokumelana kwaba kuvinjelwe yokungenisa WaseRussia eziningi ezihlukahlukene imikhiqizo ukudla, ikakhulu esikhishwe EU ukudla umkhakha (kanye nezinkampani eCanada, Australia nase-United States). Ekuqaleni kuka-August, uMongameli Russian isikhipha umyalo okuhambisanayo. Uhlu izimpahla bakhubeka phansi ukuvimbela zaba ukudla okunhlobonhlobo - inyama, imikhiqizo yobisi, inhlanzi, imifino, izithelo. Ngokuya imali elihambisana ukungenisa Imininingwane njengoba abahlaziyi balinganisela, ngesikhathi ukwethulwa zokumelana ilingana 9 bhiliyoni.

Futhi ngo-August, ziye kushintshwe umkhakha ukukhanya. Ikakhulukazi, izindlela ezingezona zokuthenga ingxenye zavalwa izingubo izindwangu, isikhumba kanye uboya. Nokho, ochwepheshe akazange abheke lesi sinyathelo we iziphathimandla zaseRussia ephendula ngqo unswinyo, njengoba umkhawulo elihambisana abathintekayo ezazivela wonke amazwe, singabali labo, kanye Russian Federation zifakwe Customs Union, hhayi nje Western.

Imiphumela "antisanktsy" I-EU

Iqiniso lokuthi unswinyo Western emnothweni Russian kungaholela ezinkingeni ngesikhathi yokungenisa ezingeni, siye kakade, ucaphuna isibonelo izimboni eziningana. Kodwa-ke ngeke ngesikhathi esifanayo uzizwe okuhle ngokwabo abathuthi angaphandle bathi imikhiqizo ubunjiniyela okufanayo. Labo enikeziwe imishini eRussia? Iyini imiphumela kungenzeka EU unswinyo? Ngokusho kwenye umhlaziyi ibika Reuters I, abantu baseYurophu ukhululekile cishe ngeke. Omunye abalingani ezimatasa Russia emkhakheni kwezomnotho - eJalimane. Kukhona izinombolo :. Abangaba yizinkulungwane 300 imisebenzi eJalimane kunjalo kubonise umsebenzi emkhakheni ngokubambisana neNhlangano Russia. Ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi nokuthengiswa German eRussia zingancishiswa ngokushintsha amashumi amaningana amaphesenti (ikakhulukazi emkhakheni isiqoqi sama-softwe). Nokho, abanye bakholelwa ukuthi nomthelela emnothweni jikelele Germany ngokuvamile ziba zimbi nakakhulu of ubudlelwano ne Russia ngeke. ngoba nje isabelo zamanje Russian ekuhwebeni Imininingwane German angaphandle manje akukho kuka 4%. Ngakho, umthelela unswinyo olubhekiswe ochwepheshe ibhizinisi bubonakala Europe njengoba ngokwanele elinganiselwe.

Sokudla "antisanktsii"

Izinto eziphathelene ezimbi kakhulu, ngokusho kongoti, le zokumelana iziphathimandla Russian - ukunqabela yokungenisa imikhiqizo EU. abahlaziyi abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi abalimi European ehlaselwe ukuvimbela kubaluleke kakhulu. Ukudiliva eRussia kwamaningi kwakuyisiqinisekiso sokuthi inzuzo, kodwa kwabanye ngebhizinisi konke okuthengiswayo isiteshi enkulu. Thola abathengi kwezinye izimakethe, abahlaziyi bathi, amabhizinisi ukudla kusukela EU uzokwazi maduze. Futhi ngakho esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, ibhizinisi labo kungenzeka mancane amathuba okuthi abe inzuzo.

Isikhwama European

Nokho, ezinye izazi zikholelwa ukuthi ngemiphumela ukuvimbela i-EU kungahle kungabi njengoba abalulekile njengoba, ngokukhethekile, umthelela unswinyo emnothweni Russian. I share lemikhiqizo kwemikhiqizo yezolimo kusuka EU eRussia - ngaphansi kuka-5% we umnotho lokhu inhlangano yezombusazwe. Futhi lokhu naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi Russia - elesibili EU ngokuya emakethe kule ingxenye. Futhi, kunobufakazi bokuthi EU kwenzekani ukuze sivale lapho sisilela ukulahlekelwa kungenzeka "antisanktsy" phezu ingxenye Russian Federation, usebenzisa amathuluzi wadala ngokukhethekile kulesi sikhwama. Nokho, inani layo, ngokuvumelana abahlaziyi, akuyona umxhwele kakhulu - izigidi ezingu-400-euro. Izwe ezingaba uhlushwa 'antisanktsy "namandla kunabanye - Finland. Ngenxa yokuthi isondele kwendawo kuba isimo kanye Russian Federation babe eduze ubudlelwane bezomnotho. Cishe 25% emazweni angaphandle kusuka Finland uya eRussia. Nokho, isabelo ukudla therein - esingaphansi 3%.

Amathemba nokwaneliswa

Uye waba yini umthelela unswinyo kwezolimo Russian? Abanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi ukuvimbela ukudla ngokumelene abakhiqizi kusukela EU kuye kwavula okukhulu amathuba agrarians yeRussia. Ngo izingxenye eziningi usule niches emakethe, noma okungenani kuthiwa ingasaphathwa ayegcwele. Kukhona umbono wokuthi abakhiqizi yezolimo Russia kungukuthi kakhulu enawulungiselelwa waba ukwanda okukhulu kwezincwadi ivolumu okukhipha, futhi kulokhu kukhona zimo ezimbili kungenzeka: Ukugcwalisa niches ngenxa abahlinzeki abasuka emazweni ukuthi musa zingena ngaphansi ukuvimbela noma esingaphansi othandeakayo umnotho waseRussia, ukuvela eziphathekayo ukuhweba kusilela. Futhi, ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda amanani.

umnotho Russian namuhla, izazi eziningi zikholelwa, akakabi bakwazi ukuqinisekisa ngokugcwele ngempumelelo yokungenisa esikhundleni - kuhlanganise emkhakheni wezolimo. Abahlaziyi kuqashelwe ukuthi ukwanda yokuthengisa amanani kwemikhiqizo ezahlukene kwenzeka esikhathini maduze ngokwanele lapho umuntu eba "antisanktsy". Ngokusho abahlaziyi, ekupheleni kuka-2014, ezinye izinhlobo lezimpahla izikhundla angase akhule ngaphezu kuka-30%. Ngokwesilinganiso, imikhiqizo yakha kubhasikidi eziyisisekelo, ukwanda amanani kungenzeka angaba ngu-15%. Kukhona kungenzeka, abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi imikhiqizo izinga ukuwa emashalofini. ERussia, kanye emazweni amaningi, lapho okuthathwa ukungenisa izimpahla, amazinga yokukhiqiza akuzona inomthetho kakhulu eYurophu.