E-US-oli: ebiziwe, ivolumu ukukhula, Dynamics

Uma ubheka amafutha emakethe emhlabeni wonke umhlaba, singasho ngokuphepha ukuthi US yilona lizwe kuphela emhlabeni, okuyinto ubusebenza oluthambile imithombo. Sekuyisikhathi eside Amanye amazwe bashiya lo mbono, ngoba bakubheka akuzuzisi futhi ngokwezimali ebizayo. Active umkhiqizo kawoyela e-United States baqala kuphela ngo-2014 phakathi ehlobo. imizamo Ngasekuqaleni ukuthuthukisa fuel ezifakwa ePoland futhi e-Hungary, kodwa zonke kuhlulekile. amathemba Omkhulu eyabelwe Ukraine, kodwa kuphela iphrojekthi 2018.

amaphrojekthi Shale e-US

US ukukhiqizwa uwoyela oluthambile uye wenyukela ngenhla kwamadolo 2014. Kuze kube yimanje, amaphrojekthi US ukumboza mayelana 10% ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke. Emuva ngo-2005, endaweni State ukwakha oda abayizigidi ezingu 7.5 imiphongolo kawoyela, futhi ngo-2014 le nkomba ifinyelele ukubaluleka imiphongolo ezingu-9. Against isizinda ayizigidi ezingu-90 imiphongolo, okuyinto wonke amazwe misela ndawonye, ukubaluleka kubaluleke kakhulu. Kuyinto lokhu ubuhlobo bese uba isigwedlo ukuthi lalifuna ukuncipha elibukhali intengo "igolide omnyama".

Iyini intengo kaphethiloli emakethe uwoyela kuqinisekisa inzuzo ukuthuthukiswa amandla e-US?

e-US izindleko umkhiqizo kawoyela kuyahluka kakhulu esifundeni. Izindleko ekuthuthukiseni umthombo kuthinta nesenzakalo amafutha kanye ukutholakala amanzi ahlanzekile ukujula. Ngasekuqaleni kuka-2005, inkampani isilinganiso onguchwepheshe ukukhiqizwa oluthambile fuel, wakwazi ukufinyelela ezingeni ngaphandle umonakalo izindleko yokugcina emakethe $ 75 umphongolo. Ngonyaka odlule ekukhiqizeni US ukuba inzuzo, e ezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele, akufanele iwe ngezansi 57 zamaRandi. Kukhona izindawo, ezifana eNyakatho Dokota lapho isizinda yokuthi engabizi ngentengo $ 42 futhi ngezansi. US ukukhiqizwa uwoyela oluthambile in the Mackenzie wesifunda kubiza kuphela $ 24. Uma uqhubeka zonke izinkomba ndawonye, kuba sobala ukuthi ingxenye amafutha Melika ongamelana hhayi njengoba drawdowns emakethe ngamazwe. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi isimo, uwoyela Onjiniyela banezidingo zabo-10% ukubaluleka emgqonyeni ngamunye. Ukuthembela kwenza yokuthi izindleko "igolide abamnyama" akubandakanyi izintela nemisebenzi mkhuba, okuyinto kwamanye amazwe yakha ngu-60% intengo base. Kungani becabanga kanjalo? Impela wamane, izintela US ngo imboni yezamandla kungukuthi icala.

Lokho esihambisana "oluthambile yokuvukela"?

Shale revolution Melika has amahle. Lokhu kungenxa ngokuyinhloko yokuthi umkhiqizo kawoyela e-US iye ayashibha. Esihambisana ke, hhayi kuphela ukuthuthukiswa imali entsha, kodwa futhi isingeniso e inqubo yokuthuthukisa amakhono ubuchwepheshe obusha uphethiloli. Ngokusho izibalo wokulungiselela, esikhathini esiseduze esizayo izimali ukugeleza kwenye isevisi kahle zingancishiswa ngokushintsha isimo mayelana 40%. Dynamics ezikhulayo ekukhiqizeni uwoyela US ngenxa imininingwane kwalo mthetho. Izinkampani ezisebenza kule ndawo, kungukuthi intela, ngoba kuze kube muva nje, le umkhakha engakaze kubhekwe ethembisa. Imakethe ubuswa izinkampani ezincane, okuyinto ahlose ukwandisa imali engenayo simfune Lokuhlatiywa izindlela zokukhiqiza. Asisa eyabo indlela yokuthuthuka.

Izinhlelo lekusasa

Umqulu ekukhiqizeni US amafutha 2015-2016, ngokuvumelana abahlaziyi, kuzokhuphula kuphela. Ngisho ukuwa emakethe izwe amanani azungeze 60% akazange kuthinte isimo kanye namathemba. Amandla yesikhathi esifushane umhlahlo we Yesikhathi Esifushane Energy Outlook ejensi ngobukhulu kuleli nethemba lokuhle. Ukhuluma enenhloso yokukhukhula isimo ukuphula amarekhodi ayo. Umthamo esiphezulu umkhiqizo kawoyela e-United States alotshwa 1970 at imiphongolo abayizigidi ezingu 9.6. -EIA ngokuqiniseka sithi kubalulekile ukulinda ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela ivolumu amathani ayinkulungwane 600 phakathi no-2015 nasekuqaleni kuka-2016 - by ayizinkulungwane 200 imiphongolo ngelanga.

Ngalolo tycoons uwoyela ukubala?

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi umkhiqizo kawoyela e-United States yindlela iyasebenza, ngomhla namathemba ayo esikhathi esizayo zikawoyela zazihlukaniswe phakathi abanikazi. Ezinye izinkampani kumisiwe okwesikhashana ukuthuthukiswa imali entsha futhi okwesikhashana ucwaningo, abanye banethemba lokuthi kuyoba futhi uqiniseka ngekusasa, bangathembeli yokutakula emakethe yezindleko fuel esingaphansi a ukubaluleka $ 100.

ikusasa eliqhakazile udonsa yokuthi Melika uya ukuphuma uwoyela kwencika emhlabeni. Uma ngo-2005 leli zwe like kwakuxhomeke lwamafutha abahlinzeki ngama-60%, bese-2011 lesi sibalo bawela 42%. Umkhuba ayikashintshi, futhi namuhla, futhi kungokufanayo nangendoda - liye lenyuka. Abakhiqizi bangathembela ngokuphepha ukufunwa amafutha isimo. Ngisho noma ngeke kwenzeke ukuba uqaphele fuel emakethe international, kuyokuhambela zidayiswe emakethe yasekhaya.

Yini abahlaziyi bathi?

Ngokusho abahlaziyi, ngo-2015 intengo ka Brent ongahluziwe uzoyeka ngaphakathi 58 zamaRandi umphongolo. Isibikezelo 2016 nethemba lokuhle nakakhulu. Lapho US izindleko umkhiqizo kawoyela izomashela ngumuntu wesithathu, inani lentengo emakethe baso bafinyelela amadola 75. Amandla umthombo WTI izobiza, ngokulandelana, $ 55 futhi 72. Le ochwepheshe uwoyela emakethe uyavuma ukuthi izindleko "igolide abamnyama" kuze kube seqophelweni samanje ngesikhathi phansi kakhulu. Eminyakeni embalwa eyalandela, intengo ngeke bakwazi ukufinyelela izisulu $ 100. Esimeni esinjalo kungabonwa ephethe ukulibala kule minyaka eyishumi. ekukhiqizeni uwoyela US Growing nokho ichaze nesidingo. Inombolo ubuchwepheshe, edinga fuel, okwandisa ehlelekile. Okwesikhashana entengo ehlangene yokujama tsi ekuthuthukiseni we ukuwohloka komnotho wamazwe amaningi. Njengoba nje isimo siphinde sibe nokuphila okuvamile, ngeke kuphela azuzwe kodwa futhi cishe ngobugebengu umkhawulo $ 100.

uwoyela emakethe US

US azizwa unethemba emakethe emhlabeni ngisho imizamo OPEC oyilungu wokukhipha izimbangi kusukela ukwehluleka niche ebekiwe umqhele. Njengoba ukwehla ngokufunwa, elalikade bakha ingxenye enkulu Melika, supply iyakhula. Ngenxa yalokho, intengo kaphethiloli uwela. Isimo kungenziwa ngokuthi imizamo knock out abadlali ababuthakathaka ukuhweba. Kuyaphawuleka hhayi kuphela ukukhula umkhiqizo kawoyela e-US, kodwa futhi isikhundla geopolitical. Ensimini ka imvelo isimo wokuncintisana kakhudlwana futhi mahhala ukwenza ibhizinisi emkhakheni energy. Esikhathini abadlali ezincane, futhi nibaningi, abe isandla khulula. Kuyinto kuvezwa ukwethembakala Uhulumeni evumela uhulumeni ukuba ngokuqiniseka yima ngezinyawo zabo ngisho ezifana izikhathi ezinzima. Ithonya US isimo ukhula futhi sibonga ehlelekile ukwandisa izinqolobane yayo "igolide omnyama".

Ngokumelene okwenza lamazwe emhlabeni imakwe intuthuko enkulu, umkhiqizo kawoyela e-United States. ishadi intengo zibukeke ibonisa ukuthi isimo kabusha ngokuphelele amafutha emazweni angaphandle. Ngokokuqala ngqá eminyakeni eminingi emazweni OPEC neRussia kuyodingeka esincintisana ayakufanelekela. Uma ngaphambili State enza okuphambene izinzuzo zalo siqu, bakwazi nokwenza izinqumo ikhumbula inqubomgomo izinzuzo kuphela manje kufanele buyekeza ngokuphelele. Kuphela ngale ndlela sizokwazi ulinganisele futhi ekulinganiseni ingxenye uwoyela.

ezingemuva unethemba

Melika is hhayi nje wavele emakethe uwoyela, it is kokukhulumela ezingemuva yayo. Ngakho, commercial sikawoyela zivumelana ivolumu sokungena net kuya ensimini izinsuku phezu 164. Ngo-December 2013, leli nani zazilingana 171 ngosuku, futhi ngo-2007 ngaphambi crisis - ezingu-80. Ukungeniswa eCanada nase eMexico kule ukubaluleka Ayibalwa. Ngakho izinga ukukhuphuka amagugu izinsuku 279 ka. Futhi uma acabangele hhayi kuphela izinqolobane commercial kodwa futhi ekahle, nani ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuba alingane izinsuku 450. Lena sesikhashana zikanokusho zokuzivikela oyoqhubeka umnotho wezwe ngisho ne ukuphazamiseka. Yena bangaba Umfutho nokwehla kwamanani kawoyela emakethe izwe kuyinto ephansi kakhulu kunalokho sibalo langempela $ 47 ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo. Okwehlisa ekwindla sezulu phakathi entwasahlobo 2015.