Lokhu kuwa komnotho: umqondo, izimbangela kanye nemiphumela

Umnotho ikhona, ngisho amazwe amaningi, owujami. izibalo wakhe kushintsha njalo. komnotho usuthathelwa ukuvelela obumbi - amagugu isiqongo sokukhula. ukuthuthukiswa cyclical libhekene emakethe uhlobo lokuphatha. Ukushintsha ezingeni umsebenzi kunemtselela Amandla okuthenga abathengi ', okuholela kona ukuba ukwehla noma ukwanda kwamanani okudla. Futhi lokhu kumane nje kuyisibonelo esisodwa izinkomba ubuhlobo. Namhlanje, emazweni amaningi kukhona isicebi, ezifana imiqondo kwezomnotho njengoba komnotho kanye yokutakula, Site incazelo kanye nokuthuthukisa umnotho wezwe.

Umlando ekuhloleni imijikelezo kwezomnotho

Uma ijika womkhiqizo okhandwe yiNingizimu yiliphi izwe, singabona ukuthi ukukhula le nkomba akuyona njalo. umjikelezo ngamunye kwezomnotho siqukethe inkathi falling ukukhiqizwa yezenhlalakahle nokulungiswa kwesimo esidalekile. Nokho, ubude bayo akachaziwe ngokucacile. Ekushintshashintsheni umsebenzi webhizinisi kahle nkomoni futhi engaphumi njalo. Nokho, kukhona imiqondo eziningana ukuthi sichaze uhlobo cyclical zentuthuko yomnotho isikhathi yalezi zinhlelo. Nezinkinga lokuqala gqwa waphawula Jean Sismondi. "Classics" babenqaba ukuthi sikhona imijikelezo. Avame ezihambisana nenkathi ubhekene nokuwa komnotho ngo izici zangaphandle, ezifana impi. Sismondi futhi yabhekisela okubizwa ngokuthi "ukwesaba 1825", obumbi zokuqala zakwamanye amazwe, owenzeka ngo nenkathi yokuthula. Ukuze zafika eziphethweni ezifanayo, noRobert Owen. Wayekholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho kungenxa ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele kanye underconsumption ngenxa nokungalingani distribution ingeniso. Owen wakhuthaza kokungenela kukahulumeni kanye indlela sezenhlalo yokulima. zinhlekelele Periodic isici capitalism, kwaba yisisekelo umsebenzi noKarla Marksa, owanibizela inguquko lamaKhomanisi.

Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi, komnotho kanye indima engadlalwa uhulumeni ekubhekaneni nalezi nkinga ayisihloko Dzhona Meynarda Keynes nabalandeli bakhe. Kuyinto lokhu esikoleni kwezomnotho systematized umbono wesimo wanikela izinyathelo zokuqala uhambisane ukususa imiphumela yabo emibi. Keynes ngisho wabalinga practice e-United States phakathi Yokuwohloka Okukhulu 1930-1933 sika.

isigaba esiyinhloko

Umjikelezo kwezomnotho kungenziwa izingxenye izinkathi emine. Phakathi kwabo:

• Ukudlondlobala komnotho (yokutakula). Le nkathi libhekene ukukhula kukhicita kanye nemsebenti. Emali liphansi. Abathengi abafuna ukuthenga ukuthi uhlehliswe ngesikhathi kunezinkinga. Zonke amaphrojekthi ezintsha ngokushesha ukukhokhela ngokwabo.
• Inani Eliphakeme. Le nkathi libhekene esiphezulu umsebenzi ibhizinisi. Izinga lokungasebenzi kulesigaba incane kakhulu. Ukukhiqizwa umthamo of the ezilandiwe kunazo. Nokho, qala ukubonisa izici ezingezinhle: wenzuzo mncintiswano sithuthukiswe, kukhuphuke payback isikhathi.
• Lokhu kuwa komnotho (esibucayi, ukwehla kwamandla omnotho). Le nkathi libhekene ukwehla umsebenzi ibhizinisi. Falling okukhipha kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali, kanye nokungabibikho kwemisebenzi liyakhuphuka. Ukucindezeleka ngokuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho ezijulile futhi isikhathi eside.
• Ngezansi. Le nkathi libhekene ubuncane umsebenzi ibhizinisi. Kulesi sigaba, kukhona ephansi Izinga labangasebenzi kanye nokukhiqiza. Phakathi nale nkathi ayihlala babutha izimpahla, eyasungulwa phakathi isiqongo womsebenzi ibhizinisi. Capital kusukela sphere yohwebo ageleza kule amabhange. Lokhu kuholela ukwehla inzalo emalini ebolekwe. Ngokuvamile, lokhu isigaba akuyona eside. Nokho, kunokuningi okungakhulunywanga ngakho. Ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi "Indawo Ephansi Omkhulu" yathatha iminyaka eyishumi.

Ngakho umjikelezo kwezomnotho kungenziwa kwachazwa ngokuthi lena yinkathi ephakathi ezimbili uthi lebhizinisi efanayo. Kumele baqonde ukuthi, naphezu imvelo cyclical in the long run-GDP ivame ukuba avuke. imiqondo enjalo kwezomnotho njengoba sokuntenga komnotho ezweni sihlalise, ukucindezeleka kanye nenhlekelele ngeke anyamalale, kodwa isikhathi ngasinye amaphuzu ziphakeme.

izakhiwo imijikelezo

iyehla iyenyuka kwezomnotho Kubhekwe kuhluke kokubili semvelo isikhathi. Nokho, kungaba ezinye izici ezivamile ukubonakala kuzo. Phakathi kwabo:

• Cyclicity kuyisici sobuntu wonke amazwe nge uhlobo emakethe zokuphatha.
• Izinkinga azinakugwenywa futhi kudingekile mkhuba. Zishukumisa umnotho, ephoqa ke ukuya wonke amazinga okukhulu yentuthuko.
• Njalo umjikelezo siqukethe izigaba ezine.
• Cyclicity ngenxa eyodwa, kodwa yezizathu ezihlukahlukene ezahlukene.
• Ngenxa yokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke phezu nengwadla kwelinye izwe nakanjani nomthelela isimo sezomnotho omunye.

ngezigaba lezinkathi

Umnotho wanamuhla uchitha izinkulungwane ngaphezu imijikelezo ezahlukene ibhizinisi. Phakathi kwabo:

• Esifushane imijikelezo Dzhozefa Kitchina. Bona izothatha iminyaka engu-2-4. Iqanjwe owaqamba ziwathole. Ukuba khona kwalezi imijikelezo Kitchin ekuqaleni alichaza ushintsho yegolide. Nokho, kuze kube manje kunenkolelo ukuthi zibangelwa ukubambezeleka ekutholeni amafemu kudingeka ukuthi wenze ulwazi lwebhizinisi izixazululo. Ngokwesibonelo, cabanga saturation emakethe lezimpahla. Kulesi simo, abakhiqizi kumele kunciphise amavolumu ukukhiqizwa. Nokho, ulwazi mayelana saturation emakethe akezi ngokushesha, kodwa nge ukubambezeleka. Lokhu kuholela esimweni esibucayi ngenxa ukubukeka izimpahla nemali esalayo nakulo nyakamali.
• Okulingene-Clément Juglar imijikelezo. Babephinde babizwe ogama lakhe behlonipha Economist eyathola kubo. khona labo kungenxa olephakathi Ukwamukelwa izinqumo ku inani lotshalo mali e fixed capital futhi sadalwa amakhono. Ubude besikhathi Juglar umjikelezo Uneminyaka ecishe ibe u 7-10.
• Rhythms kaSimoni Kuznets. Basuke yaqanjwa owathola uMklomelo KaNobel eyathola kubo ngo-1930. Ososayensi ukuchaza khona kwabo izinqubo lokubala ubuningi babantu kanye nokushintshashintsha embonini yezokwakha. Nokho, osomnotho banamuhla bakholelwa isizathu esiyinhloko esenza Kuznets jika yokuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe. Ubude besikhathi - iminyaka engaba ngu 15-20.
• amagagasi Long Nikolaya Kondrateva. Kwakumelwe ivulekele ososayensi, behlonipha futhi okuthiwa ku 1920 kabani. Ubude besikhathi - iminyaka engaba ngu 40-60. Ukuba khona K-amagagasi ngenxa ezibaluleke kanye nezinguquko ezihambisana kule nokwakheka ukukhiqizwa umphakathi.
• Imijikelezo Forrester ehlala njalo iminyaka engu-200. khona wabo ngenxa ushintsho izinto namandla.
• Toffler imijikelezo ehlala njalo eminyakeni 1000-2000. khona wabo ngenxa ushintsho oluphawulekayo ekuthuthukiseni impucuko.

izizathu

Lokhu kuwa komnotho - iyingxenye ukuthuthukiswa komnotho. Cyclicity ngenxa lezi zinto ezilandelayo:

• uthuthumele zangaphakathi nezangaphandle. Ngezinye izikhathi obizwa ngokuthi amaza kagesi sibe emnothweni. Lokhu kutholakala ulwazi olusha yetheknoloji Ungashintsha uhlobo yezolimo, ukutholakala kwezinsiza entsha amandla izingxabano ezinodlame kanye nezimpi.
• ukwanda Ukwehla e kokutshalwa kwezimali ezimpahleni ezingasuki futhi ezikhona kwezimpahla kanye izinto zokusetshenziswa, isibonelo, ngokuxhumana izinguquko nomthetho.
• Izinguquko kwamanani yezici zokukhiqiza.
• ubunjalo kwesizini yokuvuna kwezolimo.
• Ithonya elikhulayo zabasebenzi kanye, inkokhelo ke, ngezinga eliphakeme, futhi sakhula iziqinisekiso umsebenzi.

Ukuncipha zokukhula komnotho: umqondo kanye essence

Phakathi izazi zanamuhla namanje kungekho ukuvumelana ngokuthi kuyini esibucayi. Ezincwadini Soviet kusukela eSoviet Union wabusa luvo umnotho ayisibonelo kuphela amazwe isicebi, nangaphansi uhlobo sezenhlalo ka ukuphathwa kungaba "zokukhula." Kuze kube manje, kukhona mpikiswano phakathi zezomnotho lingokuthi omumbi isici micro-level. Ingqikithi bomnotho kubonakala ngokweqile ukunikezela kuqhathaniswa funa ekuhlanganisweni. Ukuncipha ukubonakala kwelase-United bankruptcies mass, ngivuka ukusweleka komsebenzi kanye nokuncipha Amandla okuthenga. Crisis kungukuphula ibhalansi uhlelo. Ngakho-ke, kuhambisana eziningi uthuthumele kwezenhlalo noma kwezomnotho. Futhi isinqumo sabo kuzodinga izinguquko zangaphakathi nezangaphandle yangempela.

imisebenzi crisis

Ukwehla komnotho lomjikelezo komnotho okuqhubekayo ngokwemvelo. It wenza imisebenzi elandelayo:

• Ukuyeka noma ukuguqulwa qualitative izingxenye akusebenzi kohlelo olukhona.
• Ukuvunyelwa izakhi ezintsha ekuqaleni ababuthakathaka.
• amandla test system.

Dynamics

Phakathi ngendlela, isimo esibucayi abhekene naso izigaba eziningana:

• Esicashile. Kulesi sigaba, kuphela preconditions kuthiwa ukukhula babengakawethembi phuma.
• Yena ehlala isikhathi. Kulesi sigaba, ukungaboni ngaso bathola amandla, izingxenye ezintsha kohlelo angene ngxabano.
• Inkathi nokunciphisa obumbi. Kuleli qophelo, uhlelo iba more uzinze, kukhona izimfanelo for imvuselelo emnothweni.

Lokhu kuwa komnotho nasemiphumeleni yaso

Zonke zinhlekelele sinomthelela nobudlelwano zomphakathi. Phakathi sokuntenga komnotho ezweni sihlalise, izinhlangano zikahulumeni beba kakhulu wokuncintisana kakhudlwana kuka kwezohwebo, emakethe yezabasebenzi. izikhungo Abaningi ayabaluleka wonakala, okuyinto kwandzisa isimo. Futhi anda ukuthandwa inkonzo yezempi ngenxa yokuthi intsha kube nzima ukuthola umsebenzi ngokwabo empilweni zomsebenzi. Kanti bayanda abantu benkolo. Ukuthandwa nemishayo, zokudla nezindawo zokudlela ezinhle kule nkinga uwela. Nokho, ezishibhile utshwala abantu seziqala ukuthenga more. Crisis kunomthelela omubi ezokungcebeleka kanye namasiko, okubangelwa ukwehla abukhali nakwentiwa.

Izindlela unqobe recessions

Umsebenzi oyinhloko isimo lapho ubhekene nenhlekelele ukuxazulula abahlukaniswa ezenhlalo nezomnotho ekhona, futhi usize zingxenye ezingavikelekile kakhulu sabantu. Keynesians umusa yokungenela emnothweni. Bakholelwa ukuthi umsebenzi kwezomnotho ingabuyiswa by oda isimo. Monetarists umusa ka ngaphezulu indlela emakethe ezisekelwe. Bona alawule supply imali. Nokho, kumelwe siqonde ukuthi zonke lezi zinyathelo zesikhashana. Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi zinhlekelele ziyingxenye ebalulekile yenkampani ngayinye futhi isimo sisonke kufanele ibe nohlelo eside.