Kuzokwenzekani uwoyela kanye ruble emuva kwale ngqungquthela e-Doha?

Ezikhathini iSoviet, izakhamuzi ezivamile we amanani kawoyela emhlabeni ayengenandaba, banayo okunye okukhathaza ngokwanele, kodwa manje seliyinto ngisho phakathi umhlalaphansi. Fall hydrocarbon izingcaphuno wazizwa esikhwameni sami konke kusuka abayiziqumama kubasebenzi abavamile, asetshenziswa ngubani ukuchitha amaholide abo zokungcebeleka angaphandle, okwakukhona isikhathi eside impela ezingabizi. Liqhathaniswa ne-dollar buthaka ruble, futhi lokhu kuye ukucasula wonkana. Imbangela Ukuwohloka isimo somnotho, abanye ukubona unswinyo Western eziphoqelelwe emva wadla eCrimea, kodwa abahlaziyi baye bame kwelokuthi ngaphezulu namanje, nokunye okuningi, labo izinqubo ezimbi kubangelwa falling amanani kawoyela. Ngakho-ke lokho kuncike kulokho kuthathwa izinyathelo ezifanele ukuze yenze ibe ngcono?

Kungani amafutha wawa?

Oil - umkhiqizo kanye nentengo yayo incike ukunikezela funa. Kuye kwafakazela ukuthi kube nephutha kwezibalo eyenziwe ngabathengisi bamasheya, kanye kwakugcwele eziyihaba imiqulu zokusetshenziswa ku omningi. Ngamanye amazwi, kokubili abakhiqizi futhi abathengi wacabanga ukuthi uwoyela kungaphezu kwaba ngempela, futhi wahlala isikhathi eside. Kunengqondo, kuba acabangele leli ukuhlanekezela engokoqobo, sokuchibiyela, nakho konke uyowela endaweni. Ingxenye yalokho okwenzeka, intengo laqala ukwenyuka esuka ezingeni $ 29 umphongolo, kodwa owabe engaphezu kwekhulu futhi akazange uthole ukuhlala kule nombolo emibili nengxenye izikhathi kancane, futhi ngesizathu esihle. Okokuqala, nemakethe ekulu ezinjalo, njengoba hydrocarbon, inert ngokunembile ngenxa yobukhulu bawo, futhi okwesibili, isidingo uhlala ngempela ongaphakeme, kodwa ukunikezela lenyuka emva bephakamisa unswinyo ne-Iran. Amazwe ezikhiqiza uwoyela waqala ukuba uzindle imizamo kokuxhumana, kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi isikhundla Russia akulona embi kakhulu phakathi kwabo.

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Mshini kwethonya intengo umbono silula. Uma ungakwazi ukwandisa ngokufunwa, futhi eba yiqhwa okubangelwa ukwehla kweminye imisebenzi yebhizinisi emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi e-Latin America, kuba omunye kuphela - ukumisa amavolumu ukukhiqizwa. Naphezu ebhukwinitifundvo kungenzeka njengoba sinjalo izinyathelo, ukufeza umphumela sasiwumsebenzi nzima kunokulindelekile. Intengo kawoyela bayovuka ngisho jack uma ukukhiqizwa yayo kuyehla, kodwa hhayi ezweni elifanayo, futhi cishe bonke ngesikhathi esisodwa. Kulesi ukulahlekelwa ongenakugwenywa isikhathi lapho lwemali engenayo encishisiwe. Futhi ngisho noma emazweni OPEC, nge ncazelo, ukufuna ukuba aphishekele umgomo sokuhlanganiswa ayikwazi aphikisana wodwa, izimo lapho sipho nalo enikeziwe noPhuthi, Iraq, futhi manje Iran, lesi sivumelwano kuyinkinga kakhulu. Kule ndaba, kwaba yilowo nalowo ngenxa yakhe uqobo nangenxa ufuna ukuba 'agibele ngezithukuthuku zabanye. " Ake othile kunciphisa ehlupheka ukukhiqizwa futhi ongawamukeli inzuzo, futhi ngayinye amazwe ke uzibophezele singalahlekelwa futhi ukujabulela izithelo imizamo yabanye. Lokhu kwaqhubeka isikhathi eside, futhi lo mdlalo kuyinto okusikhumbuza poker nabangani Bluff yakhe. Saudi Arabia yabonisa nandaba ephelele, okubonisa ukuthi intengo ephansi kwamukelekile ngempela, futhi amaMelika elahliwe emakethe zonke eziningi ezintsha izimpahla. Umbuzo wawuwukuthi kuphela abasinda lungaphezu uhlanga. Izinkampani eziningi waya yimali futhi aphume lo mdlalo, kuyilapho abanye kunciphise ukukhiqiza, abanye baye adayiswa e-negative. Ngokungenamkhawulo ke akakwazanga eside.

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Ngo-February 2016 izinkampani zezimayini Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela futhi Qatar, ekugcineni wanquma ukusungula isithiyo ekukhuleni amanani kawoyela. Kuze kube yimanje, ilunga isinqumo kwangaphambilini ku umkhawulo zokukhiqiza ezingeni esenzeka ngoJanuwari walo nyaka. Amaphepha lokhu isilinganiso okufanele kwenzeke ngo-April 17 ku-summit kuyinto umphakeli elikhulu hydrocarbon emhlabeni. Inkinga eyinhloko ekuvimbela isicelo ukuthi isilinganiso ku umkhuba kuze kube manje ibilokhu ukwenqaba Iran ukusekela isixazululo ezivamile ehlanganisiwe, ubuhanjelwe nedlanzana kwesigamu emazweni ukhathazekile. Ngemva izinkulumo labetibambile phakathi kukaNgqongqoshe wezaMandla, ezithebeni komphakathi womhlaba wonke futhi Novak Saudi Amafutha uNgqongqoshe Ali al-Naimi ukusebenza watshelwa ukuthi umkhawulo ukukhiqizwa izobanjelwa ngisho noma Tehran uyaqhubeka ukumpompa uwoyela kakhulu ngendlela afuna.

"Ebandayo" amalungu

Ngokusho Novak, umkhiqizo kawoyela eqandisiwe awukwazi uthi nanhlanu kuphela kakade enzé lesi sinqumo, nanoma yibaphi abanye abafisa ukusekela inqubo okuhloswe ngazo okwandisa amanani izinto zokusetshenziswa ukuthi kungaba wamukelekile. Ngesikhathi esifanayo iyiphi ukuphoqwa noma ukunqunywa unswinyo olubhekiswe ingxenye OPEC nabanye "owazihlanganisa" amazwe ezikhishiwe. imithombo Yokusebenzelana Kwamazwe kuthiwe ngemva lesi sitatimende Riyadh ayisekho acabangele isikhundla akhawunti Iran, nakuba ngaphambili exhumene kungenzeka umnkantsha nenqubomgomo yezwe zokukhiqiza. Tehran wenqabile kuze kube manje ukusekela OPEC neRussia, futhi unesizathu esihle - amashumi eminyaka emnothweni kazwelonke sancipha unswinyo, futhi manje efuna ngempela ukuya ezingeni yangaphambilini ye hydrocarbon nokuthengiswa. Ukukhiqizwa e-Iran enyangeni edlule kakhulu lenyukile kusukela kwezigidi ezingu-2.9. Barrel ukuba 3.2.

Zivela ngalesikhathi umzabalazo phakathi Amathrendi ezimbili

Isimo nge isidingo uwoyela uhlala kunzima kakhulu, ngokusho OPEC, okwamanje imiphongolo 1.2 million kuphela ngosuku. Ngakho, kunzima ukulindela ukuthi ngisho esiqongweni Doha nemiphumela yayo nomthelela ku isimo emakethe, futhi intengo bakhuphuke ngokucijile, futhi funa kungazifinyeleli ukunikezela. Nokho, ukwenza okuthile sisadingeka, ikakhulukazi ukuthi ngenxa ukwehla inzuzo US amavolumu umkhiqizo kawoyela unqabile, enithi kuyinto kancane kodwa ngokuqinisekile ngaya ukukhula. Market asabela ngayo intengo lidlule uphawu $ 44. Kufeza ngokumelene ukwanda umkhuba supply Iranian futhi Iraq. Iyiphi kuyoba linqoba mkhuba manje Kunzima ukuqagela.

Kuyanda okulindele noma ilindele impumelelo?

Umhlaba amazinga zisekelwe hhayi kuphela amaqiniso ukhonkolo, bathembele ngokwezinga elikhulu phezu okulindele. Le ngqungquthela kungafiki eDoha kwathinta MICEX Russian futhi RTS, bafika anamuhla esiphezulu akambonanga kusukela kokuwa 2008 kuze kube manje. Waqinisa ruble exchange rate ngokumelene euro (ruble esingaphansi 74.) Futhi US dollar. I-Russian lwemali kazwelonke uye wabonisa okusezingeni eliphezulu tilinganiso, ekhule phakathi emazweni asathuthuka. Lezi zenzakalo ezinhle akufanele Nokho, kubangele isimo sokulindela okuhle ngokweqile, bona zibangelwa izici, kodwa namanje akukho impumelelo, ngakho indices, kanye izifundo ungakwazi ukudlala emuva.

Four okuhlukile short-term uchwepheshe izibikezelo

I simo ngezehlakalo oluzayo angagcina ngezindlela ezahlukene, kodwa empeleni kungenzeka kube umphumela amane kuphela, futhi sithembele isikhundla Iran. I okungenzeka kakhulu (35%) nethuba ukuxoxisana ngaphandle ukwesekwa Tehran salokhu cishe akudingeki ukukhombisa umzamo. umphumela ashiwo: uwoyela at $ 45 umphongolo "Brent" ngayinye, dollar 65 ruble. Indlela yesibili - Iran isekela esiqongweni kodwa namanje kuhlelwe ukuba bandise ukukhiqizwa (amathuba 30%). Intengo kawoyela kuyoba okufanayo, okungukuthi, $ 45, noma ngisho ephakeme, at $ 47, kanti ruble uyovuka ukuze 64 dollar ngalinye. Okungenzeka simo sesithathu, isiqongo lizwe abavumelani (ematfuba "Savings Bank" isibikezelo, 20%). Kuyoba kubi, dollar uyovuka intengo kuze ruble 75-78, uwoyela ukuwa emuva $ 30, kuyilapho nokubala abanethemba ukuba 35. 15% ematfuba elilinganisiwe simo ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo, uma Iran amukela imigomo umkhawulo ukukhiqizwa ezihlongozwayo ukwandisa izikhathi eziyizigidi ezingu-2.9. ibha. ngosuku. Kulokhu, singalindela intengo $ 47 noma ngisho $ 50. ruble kuyoqinisa ruble 62-63.

Yesikhathi eside okulindele

Ucabange ukuthi esiqongweni Doha baba yize, asikho isizathu, kungenjalo ngeke kudingeke bahlele. Abahlaziyi "Ukulondoloza" isikisela ukuthi kulindeleke yi Ngokwesilinganiso, intengo kawoyela kwaba 42,5 zamaRandi umphongolo ngekota 2nd, 45 e-3 rd, futhi ekupheleni konyaka uyofinyelela 47,5 noma 50. Ukuvimbela ukukhula kuyoba ukuvuselelwa ukukhiqizwa Argentina, Libya, eBrazil nakwamanye amazwe lapho umkhakha is stagnating. Ngasekuqaleni kuka-2017 i-dollar exchange rate kulindeleke ku ezahlukene ruble 58-60 (Economist induna "BCS"). Engavumelani omunye umhlaziyi, Kuzmin ( "Renaissance Capital"), ulindele lo RUR / USD 65. Ake ubone ukuthi iyiphi omunye wabo ilungile.