Kungani amafutha eshibhile? Isibikezelo ngoba amanani kawoyela

Ekwindla ka-2014, abantu abaningi bezibuza ukuthi kungani lelo uwoyela eshibhile. Kusukela ngo-September 5, amanani azo zonke izinhlobo zikaphethiloli waqala ukwehla. Umkhuba uyaqhubeka namuhla. Umlando ubonisa ukuthi phakathi nenkathi emakethe uwoyela oMhlaba, izimfanelo ezibalulekile ukuze ukukhula kanye nokwehla kwamanani, kuhlanganise nalezo ezingasebenzisi zadalwa eyayenziwe. Autumn 2014 engamboziwe hhayi omunye zezenzakalo ezingokomlando.

Yini indaba?

I igrafu amanani kawoyela ngezikhathi ezithile ngokushesha ezihambayo ohlangothini olufanayo kuwona wonke umlando khona emakethe. Omunye iziqephu zenzeka ngonyaka ngaphambi kokuqala kweMpi YaseGulf. Nakuba intengo indawo lamafutha kwaba zamadola 18,05 kuphela. Phakathi nempi, intengo kawoyela brand "Brent" ifinyelele ezingeni $ 29, futhi ngaleso sikhathi, inani eliphakeme kunawo zomlando ku- $ 41,5. Kuvele Eqinisweni ezithakazelisayo wukuthi usuku kugqashuke izimpi, futhi ngosuku olulandelayo ngemuva kokuphela olusemthethweni, izindleko fuel kwaba ezifanayo - ku 19,93 zamadola umphongolo. izimo ezifanayo ziye zenzeka esikhathini Islamic Revolution e-Iran phakathi empini Iran-Iraq, ngesikhathi kunezinkinga Asian zezimali futhi ngesikhathi impi ibambene wesibili e-Iraq. Ngo-September 2014 akazange athembisa ukuwa okukhulu. Thanda njalo ngonyaka, ku isizinda Agasti, intengo waphela ngo-September. I iconsi yayingabalulekile, 4.5% kuphela.

ukwehla

Ukuwa kwe-4.5% baqhubeka ngo-Okthoba, futhi umbuzo mayelana nokuthi kungani namuhla siya uwoyela eshibhile, futhi okwamanje namanje efanele. Lapho phakathi ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela babe ezingeni 86,4 zamaRandi umphongolo, abahlaziyi waqala ukukhathazeka. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi umhlaba awuyona izimfanelo kwezomnotho bekungengenxa lesi simanga. Umnotho lamazwe emhlabeni, nakuba kwaba ziyancipha, kodwa isimo esibucayi inhlekelele noma ushayele kwaba yinkinga kakhulu. Lokhu ongaphakeme ngenkathi kuqhathaniswa ephezulu ezingeni intengo lanamuhla wagcina ezilotshwe 2010 ngemva Inkinga 2008 ngonyaka. imithombo yezwe aseqalile ngenkuthalo wenze isitatimende ukuthi imbangela yesimo manipulation US steel emakethe. Kwenzekani eqinisweni, akunakwenzeka ukusho ngokuthe ngqó, kodwa zezomnotho ukuhlukanisa eziyinhloko okunzima noma imicimbi.

oluthambile Icebo lika

Abaningana impela izazi emhlabeni ukuthi uwoyela awe intengo ngenxa oluthukuswe ngokucophelela izindleko wangempela ukuthuthukiswa uwoyela oluthambile e-United States. Izindleko ekuthuthukiseni enomkhiqizo wokumbiwa phansi kuyinto ephansi kakhulu kunalokho ayekulindele sekumenyezelwe emphakathini. Engqungqutheleni Geneva, abameleli izinkampani ezinkulu uwoyela ezifana Morgan Stanley, Eagle Ford Barclays Plc., Wathi ukuthi izindleko oluthambile zokubasa ukukhiqizwa ziyahlukahluka kusuka 30 kuya ku-60 zamaRandi umphongolo. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi intengo "igolide abamnyama" emakethe izwe akukhona ezibucayi. Kwathiwa babikezeli ukuthi Okthoba ukwehla kwenani kufanele maduzane. Ngeshwa, umhlahlo intengo kawoyela asikafiki kweqiniso.

Izikhundla ka OPEC

Isici sesibili, okwaholela mayelana nombuzo othi kungani eshibhile uwoyela - kuyinto ukunqwabelana emakethe. Inqwaba ku eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke uhamba "igolide abamnyama" Iran. Ukudiliva livela eLatin America nase-Afrika kwaqala ukuba luthathe elikhulu emakethe. nokugcinwa Yemfihlo kwamanani kawoyela ngokunciphisa umthamo yayo ukukhiqizwa iye sebekubeke aliwa emazweni OPEC. A indima enkulu ukubukeka sipho esikhulu ukudlala unswinyo ukuthi EU waphakamisa ne ngobukhulu ngamaloli Iranian inkampani NITC. I-EU ngenkuthalo isekela Tehran, nakho ingenye abahlinzeki ezinkulu. Okokhelekayo selifakiwe emakethe futhi kusukela abakhiqizi US. Ukusho okungaphezulu, eminyakeni yamuva nje iye etshaliwe esiningi US amafa imboni lamazwe ezifana South Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea neMozambique.

Ukudedelwa uwoyela ukuze emakethe US

Ochwepheshe abaningi uyazibuza ukuthi kungani uwoyela eshibhile, yisho ukusetha kabusha global Melika emakethe lemiqulu emikhulu nophethiloli. Ingxenye esiqiwini kazwelonke labelwa ukudayiswa ngenxa eziphansi ukuthuthukiswa oluthambile. Ngemva Melika iye yakhetha i kudayisa Canada, yona eyaqala ukwenza i ukulwa amafa abo e-Arctic, kokuba kuqalile ukuthuthukiswa ezindaweni. Kufanele ishiwo ukulungiselela uma kukhethwa uMongameli Obama 2017, ebheka Inqubomgomo bayo uma buqhathaniswa emakethe uwoyela ngamazwe.

Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku yokuphambuka

Namuhla, uwoyela lehla intengo, futhi ngenxa yokuthi phakathi ekwindla 2014, wabathengi abaningi bekulindeleke ukuba liqale kwamanani kawoyela liwile. Ngo umhlahlo yayo abahlaziyi emhlabeni bacasulwa kusukela izinkolelo-mbono izimpi zombango e -Arabhiya futhi ulahlekelwe. Imininingwane Amanga mayelana nokubhujiswa imizila yezokuthutha nezindawo ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela emazweni Arab akazange ukudlala ezandleni befisa. Esikhundleni ukukhula olulindelekile ngembubhiso esibulalayo e-Iraq, Libya akwenzekanga. Ngokuphambene nalokho, kukhona manje asisebenzi sodwa, kodwa isikhungo ezimbili ukuthekelisa. Impi ukuze kungalimazi le uwoyela negesi umkhakha.

Yena ngenkuthalo ukuphishekela amalungelo ayo futhi Kurdistan uwoyela nokuthengiswa kulinganiselwa ngaso $ 4 billion. Ukulinganiselwa nemizamo ukumisa iziteshi supply Iran kushabalele. Ehlobo lika-2013 liye limenyezelwe ubukhosi athi Arab sompristi, okuyothi ngalo emakethe uthuthwa "Kwesokunxele" uwoyela. imfundo State kuphela yavusa ezokuthutha eYurophu lamafutha semi okusemthethweni nokungemthetho ezishibhile.

Guqula umzila

I igrafu amanani kawoyela uqhubekela phansi ngenxa ushintsho kwemizila yayo kwezidingo. Ihlasela amasosha US Syria yaqinisa isiqondiso Turkish lemikhiqizo Iraq. Ngaphansi isembozo yokulwa Khilafah ekubhujisweni zabhekana zokuwuhluza mayelana 27 futhi ngobukhulu isitshalo yaseSiriya. Ngenxa yalokho, Syria ushiye uhlu abahlinzeki eyinhloko uphethiloli Iraq. indawo yayo sathathwa ngamazwe ikhiqize kakhudlwana ezifana Kurdistan naseTurkey. Logistics Okuningi evumayo zishukumisa yokwehla kwezinga amanani jikelele. Kukawoyela ngamunye emazweni of Iraq izikhathi nengxenye amasheya ngaphezulu, okuyinto Russia. Falling amanani kawoyela kuzoqhubeka ngoba mncintiswano okukhulu phakathi kwamazwe. Ukwehlisa inqubomgomo intengo, abahlinzeki ezinkulu, ikakhulukazi OPEC, uhlose push zonke izimbangi.

Ingxabano phakathi Melika neRussia

Ochwepheshe abaningi baye bazama ukuchaza ukuthi kungani Russia siya uwoyela eshibhile, ukukhumbula ezimnandi zakudala "impi yomshoshaphansi" phakathi Melika neRussia. Unswinyo onikezwe ngezizathu empini nge-Ukraine, babengathembekile ngokwanele enamandla kanye nomnotho Russian ayizange wahlupheka. Ukuqagela kusikisela ngomzamo ukuthonya izenzo uhulumeni waseRussia ngokulawula amafutha amanani jikelele. • Ukwehlisa izindleko uphethiloli kuholela ukuncipha kwemali engenayo isimo e dollar imigomo. Ngenxa yalokho, i-ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar buthakathaka. umnotho wezwe isiba ayikwazanga nekwesekela imboni yetetimayini e lemali efanele. Ukuphikisana kule kucatshangwa ukuthi kuphela yokwehla kwamanani kawoyela abathintekayo hhayi kuphela isiRashiya, kodwa futhi i-United States, nezinye izizwe eziningi.

izici Secondary uwoyela iconsi

Uhlelo amanani kawoyela ekuboniseni umkhuba phansi, hhayi kuphela ngenxa ezicashile Uma unganakile, izinkinga zomnotho. Direction baqinise imiphumela eminingi yesibili:

• Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni.
• Esenziwe Lula navigation ukufinyelela emasimini amasha e-Arctic.
• Ngokungadingekile Fukushima syndrome emkhakheni energy. Izimakethe igesi namafutha ziye zanda kakhulu imiqulu.
• ukuthuthukiswa Active ubuchwepheshe ukutakula uwoyela, ukufuna ezahlukeneyo okunye yentuthuko ensimini.

Kwenzekani ngokulandelayo?

umbono Isazi ku umbuzo wokuthi kungani amafutha eshibhile, kancane bengavumelani ngenxa yesimo sezomnotho emhlabeni nokuhlukanisa asebenzayo amafutha emakethe emhlabeni. Kulokhu, iningi abadlali igxile lokhu kwakuyoba nomphumela omuhle lesi simo. Kule ndaba, waveza umbono eziningi abaphakeli ezinkulu kwezimpahla. With amanani lanamuhla fuel, ochwepheshe isimemezele cishe $ 55:

• Ukuze intengo at $ 60 sithambekele abahlaziyi izwe elalaziwa, uwoyela kanye nezinkampani kokukhuluma, ochwepheshe bathi.
• US Energy Information Administration, ngoJanuwari ngokuthi elilungile uphethiloli izindleko esekhonjwe $ 58 zama-dollar ngalinye.
• Le nhlangano "Prime", kokuxoxa abahlaziyi mayelana 150, kunikeza umhlahlo wakhe ngoba amanani kawoyela. Bona ukubikezela ushintsho ukubaluleka emgqonyeni kusukela emaRandini ayizigidi 50 kuya ku-80.
• inkampani Abahlaziyi eyaziwa "Goldman Sachs" ukumiswa Isibikezelo $ 50.
• Ibhange lase-America Merrill Lynch is ukubhejela intengo zamadola umphongolo 40.
• UMongameli Lukoil unqabile izindleko uwoyela at $ 60 umphongolo.
• Morgan Stanley ochwepheshe basikisela ukuthi owokuqala - sonyaka ka 2015 yesibili intengo kawoyela izogcinwa ngaphakathi $ 57. Kulokhu, ekoteni yesithathu neyesine yonyaka, ngokuvumelana abameleli inkampani, uthembisa ukwanda kokutheleleka kudlange kakhulu izindleko imikhiqizo kaphethiloli a ukubaluleka $ 70.
• amabhange Swiss babuka isimo futhi ngaso sonke okuhle ngendlela engakholeki. They kholwa petroleum amanani lishone 70 - 85 zamaRandi.

Naphezu zokuchithwa izinkampani eziningi ezinkulu samafutha zomhlaba mayelana nezinhlelo kanye imiklamo yabo, abakulindele ukuba ahlale ethembeni kakhulu. Naphezu inqubomgomo okuqinile ingxenye OPEC, iningi ochwepheshe sithambekele kulokhu kucabanga ukuthi maduze isimo edlelana ku amafutha emakethe emhlabeni, nayo yonke ukulahlekelwa kuzona zombili amazwe kanye nezinkampani ngabanye uzokwazi ukuba alulame. Okwamanje, lo mkhuba falling, futhi kungani uwoyela eshibhile namuhla, akekho sizakwenza ukuchaza.