Izindlela ukubikezela

Indlela ethola ucingo eziyinkimbinkimbi, emelela isethi ngaphambilini izindlela ezilula, okuyinto yenzelwa ukuthuthukiswa isibikezelo jikelele. Libuye indlela ukuthi livela ulwazi amaphethini ajwayelekile kakhulu futhi wasebenzisa ekutheni siphumelele ekufezeni inhloso.

izindlela ukuqagela kukhona isethi olukhethekile amasu lapho imisebenzi eyenziwa prognostic, bese uthatha ukucutshungulwa idatha ku esikhathini esizayo.

Lolu cwaningo zalezi amasu kanye izakhiwo zabo abathintekayo in eyala efanele. Ukubikezela Indlela Yokwenza ihlukaniswa ngokweminyaka imikhakha ethile. Ngakho, ukwaba goal setting, ikhono lokubona izinto kusengaphambili, ukuhlela, ukuhlela, nokuningi.

ukuthuthukiswa Indlela Yokwenza umhlahlo ubhekwa kukhethwe isethi ezithile izindlela namasu ukubikezela.

Uhlelo ibizwa ngokuthi i isethi ngaphambilini amathuluzi obuchwepheshe, amasu. Kuyinto kusebenza izinqubo eziyinkimbinkimbi kanye izenzakalo.

Yokuzenza ebizwa ngokuthi i ukuqagela uhlobo oluthile esisebenzayo noma theory indlela ekwakhekeni sezulu singaba njani. Lena ngenye (noma ngaphezulu) a zezibalo noma ukusebenza okunengqondo, okuyinto ihlose ukuthola yi ezithile.

Isazi sefilosofi Bazarov (Ore) ngo-1927 ezihlongozwayo ezintathu izindlela: extrapolation, imodeli nobungoti kohlaziyo. Namuhla, kunezinguqulo ezingaba ngu amabili namashumi amabili izinyathelo. Uma le isetshenziswa umkhuba akukho engaphezu kweyishumi wabo. Phakathi kwabo, ikakhulukazi, kufanele kuphawulwe oluyiqiniso (yengetiwe, extrapolation, mkhuba ukuhlaziywa), ukushicilelwa, ebabazekayo, citationality-index, izindlela matrix ukubikezela. Osetshenziswayo futhi aphila, ukwakhiwa imizekeliso, amashadi kanye nezinye izinto. Indawo ekhethekile kuhlala izindlela uchwepheshe ukubikezela.

Kukhona futhi amasu amasha. Ngakho, ngokwesibonelo, ihlaba umkhosi:

1. Izindlela ukubikezela eguquguqukayo. Bahlanganisa ukwakhiwa ukuphinda (ababuyayo) onobuhle self-ukulungisa ukuthi bayakwazi ukubonisa izakhiwo ashukumisayo nokushintsha anikezwe isikhathi chungechunge, ikhumbula ukubaluleka Imininingwane yamalungu ezinjalo esikhathini.

2. Ukuhlolwa morphological. Isetshenziselwa amathuba izibonelo zalokho engachemile nelungile ehlelekile elihlobene ne ukubikezela inhlolovo.

3. Retroalternativistiku.

4. Indlela sihlinzekela ukwakhiwa "Izinjongo esihlahleni". Le nqubo ibizwa esetshenziselwa ukuhlola izingxenye zokulawula ezivamile.

5. yangokwesiko omfushane.

6. Indlela imbangela nemphumela. Le divayisi eduze target inkinga-indlela.

7. umhlahlo Combined. Le ndlela kuhilela ukusetshenziswa ezinye ukuhlolwa kufinyeta ukuthi etholakale ngesisekelo ngokuhlanganisa ahlukene projection umbiko lohlelekile nobe longakahleleki yangasese, ngokuwangeza, ngokuvamile ethile isisindo izici.

Lokhu kuhlukaniswa ubhekwa okunemibandela kakhulu. Lokhu kungenxa kakhulu yokuthi cishe zonke izindlela ukubikezela umphelelisi nomunye, nekhululekile intersecting. Ngokwesibonelo, ukuhlola njalo iqukethe izinto yokwakheka nokulandelana extrapolation. Kulokhu, lo somabhizinisi kakhulu ukukholelwa ngaphandle ukumodeliswa nokuhlaziya izingxenye. Nokho, ukumbumbuluzwa sihlinzekela izinto eziqukethe ezinye izindlela ukubikezela.

Ekuhlaziyeni into ngokuvamile idingekile ukuze ucwaningo okungekho noyedwa kodwa eziningana izinkomba. Kulesi sibalo eyodwa ongabikezela ngosizo indlela, ezinye - usebenzisa ehluke ngokuphelele. Ngakho, kungenzeka ukuthi into eyodwa isicelo izikhathi eziningana.

Kukhona futhi izindlela wokubikezela zezimali. Bahlanganisa izindlela nenkhulumombiko. Ekuhleleni umkhuba, njengoba umthetho, asetshenziswa kokubili izindlela.