Isilinganiso "sodoti" - yilokho? Yini elindele iRussia ngemuva kokulinganisa "udoti"

Namuhla kumaphephandaba, njalo njalo, imibiko iyaqhamuka ngokunikeza ukulinganisela kweRussia ngegama elithile kulesilinganiso "sokudola". Le ncazelo yabaningi ihlala ingacaciswanga, ngoba umuntu ojwayelekile akanakwazi ukuqonda kahle izimali, futhi uma ukulinganisa kungacacile, ngaleyo ndlela imilayezo ichaza ngokuthi "imfucuza" idinga ukutshelwa ngokuningiliziwe. Mayelana nalokhu nezinye izinkinga zezindaba ezivela emkhakheni wezomnotho kamuva kulesi sihloko.

Kuyini?

Ukuze uqonde lokho okushiwo yi-"junk" rating, okokuqala udinga ukuqonda incazelo "yokulinganisa isikweletu". Noma yimuphi umuntu, inkampani noma ngisho nezwe angaba nesilinganiso sayo solvency. Isibonelo, amabhange ezimweni eziningi enza izilinganiso zabo ezibolekayo, futhi uma kuziwa ekuhloleni ubukhulu bezinkampani ezinkulu noma izifundazwe, lokhu kwenziwa yizinhlangano ezizimele ezizimele zokulinganisa. Phakathi kwabo kukhona ama-FitchRatings, i-Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S & P), imisebenzi yabo enwebezela emhlabeni wonke, futhi emibonweni yabo abaningi abatshalizimali balalela.

Ngokuphathelene namazwe, lezi zinkomba zihlanganiswa ngokuhlaziywa kwesimo sezomnotho, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwezimali zesizwe kanye nezinye izinkomba.

Akunakutsho ukuthi kukhona uhlelo lokulinganisela olwamukelwe ngokuvamile, inhlangano ngayinye inezindlela zayo nezinkomba. Zonke izilinganiso zingahle zihlukaniswe ngokwezimo zibe yizibophezelo zekhwalithi ephakeme kunazo zonke, ephakeme kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuneziqinisekiso eziyingozi futhi ezicatshangelwayo, kanye nezibikezelo zokungalahleki kokuqala. Isilinganiso "sokudola" siwukuzibophezela kwalolu hlobo kuphela.

Izimbangela zenkinga eRussia

Nakuba eminyakeni yamuva, ukulinganisa isikweletu saseRussia akuzange kube ezingeni eliphakeme, kodwa kwakungeyona "udoti" futhi ukuxazululwa kwezwe kwakungabhekwa ngokukhethekile. Izingqinamba zaqala ngo-2014, ngemuva kokusungulwa kweCrimea kanye nezigwebo ezalandela ezivela e-US naseYurophu. Konke kubikwa ukuwa kwamanani amafutha, okwenza ukuba kube nokuhlaziywa okukhulu kwe-ruble. Lezi zenzakalo kanye nezinye izenzakalo zaphakamisa ukukhuluma ngenkinga futhi ngisho nokuhleleka kweRussia.

Amazwe avame ukulinganisa "okungenamsoco" anomnotho obuthakathaka ngezinkinga eziningi. Manje umphakathi womhlaba wonke usuqalile ukukhuluma ngokufakwa kweRussia kulolu hlu olungathandeki. Ngendlela, okokugcina ukukala kwekhredithi yezwe bekusezingeni "lokungcola" ngo-2005.

Izibikezelo ezingenangqondo

Ekupheleni kuka-2014, uNgqongqoshe wezeziMali u-Alexei Kudrin uthe inkinga yezomnotho egcwele iqala ezweni. Ngokusho kwakhe, iRussia ngonyaka ka-2015 inganikezwa ngokulinganisa "okungenamsoco", lokhu kungabangelwa ngamanani aphansi e-otholi - izigwebo nazo zivusa ukwehla komnotho emnothweni. Ngokwezibikezelo zenhloko yangaphambili yenkonzo, i-GDP yezwe izokwehla okungenani ngo-2%, uma nje amafutha azobiza ama-dollar angu-80, ngamanani aphansi azungeze u-R60, umnotho ungawela ngo-4%.

U-Kudrin ukholelwa nokuthi uhulumeni ulandela inqubomgomo enganele, ngakho-ke izinga lokukhula eliphansi noma lokukhula elingenakugwemeka ngaphandle kwezinkinga zangaphandle ezihlobene namanani kawoyela kanye nezigwebo.

Yehlisa ukukala

Ekuqaleni kuka-2015, i-Fitch Agency inciphise ukulinganiswa kwe-solvency yaseRussia kuze kube sezingeni le-BBB-, okuyinto isinyathelo sokugcina endaweni yokutshala izimali, bese kuthi "ukukala udoti" kuqhubeka. I-Russia yanikezwa umbono omubi wesikhathi esizayo esiseduze.

Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, ama-ejensi wokulinganisa i-S & P no-Moody anciphise ukulinganisa kwekhredithi yaseRussia ku-speculative noma okuthiwa "ingcola". Ngokusho kwemibiko yabo, esinye sezizathu zokunciphisa ukulinganisa yizingxabano eziqhubekayo e-Ukraine, okuyinto, ngandlela-thile, engathinta isimo sezomnotho eRussia ngokwawo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi silinganiso sithinteka kabi ngamanani aphansi e-oyile kanye nesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa esingaguquki sezimali kazwelonke.

I-Agency Moody's, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ikholelwa ukuthi kukhona amathuba okuthi uhulumeni waseRussia uthathe izinqumo ezinjalo, okungahle kube nomthelela ekusebenziseni isikweletu sangaphandle sezwe ngesikhathi esifanele.

Kufanele kuqaphele ukuthi uma izilinganiso zama-ejensi ahlukene zihluka, khona-ke isibikezelo esibi kakhulu sicatshangelwa kuqala.

Ukuhlola kuyinhloso

Ama-ejensi wokulinganisa ama-Big Three ayizikhungo ezizimele, ngokuvamile ukuhlolwa kwabo kubhekwa njengokungakhethi futhi kungenhloso. Kodwa-ke, iqiniso lokuthi ama-ejensi, elilodwa, alinganisa ukulinganisa "okungenamsoco" waseRussia, kubhekwa nguMnyango Wezangaphandle njengesinqumo sezombangazwe, engafanelekile embonweni wezomnotho futhi okuhloswe ngawo ekunciphiseni izwe. Inkonzo iyaqiniseka ukuthi lezo zivivinyo ziyingxenye yomgomo waseNtshonalanga wokucindezela eRussia ngokusebenzisa izigwegwe.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi isinqumo sikaMoody sika ukunikeza iRussia ukulinganisa kweBa1, okusho nje ukulinganisa "okungenamsoco", kwakucatshangwa nguDudrin ukuba ingaqondakali, naphezu kokuthi ngaphambili wayephakamisile ukuthi kunganciphisa izinga lokubusa elibusayo laseRussia ukuze liqagele. Kuyaphazamisa futhi iqiniso lokuthi ngaphambi kwalesi silinganiso ubuyekezwe ngenyanga nje edlule - akucaci ukuthi kungani lokhu kuyadingeka okwamanje.

Kunalokho kusongela izwe

Ngokwalo, ukulinganisa "udoti" akusongeli okuningi, ikakhulukazi njengoba umnotho uthonywa kakhulu yizici eziyinhloko njengamanani amafutha, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-ruble, kanye nokuboleka kwezinkampani kanye nomphakathi. Singasho ukuthi ukukala okuphansi kubonisa ubunzima obukhona.

Amazwe anesilinganiso sokuthi "okungenamsoco" angase abe nobunzima ukuthola izikweletu emazweni angaphandle, futhi uma kwenzeka eRussia, enikezwe izigwebo ezibekwa kuso, ukulinganisa okuphansi kwe-ejensi ngeke kushintshe okuningi - ukugeleza kokutshalwa kwezimali ezweni kuye kwehla kakhulu ngonyaka ka-2014. Kodwa-ke, izimali eziningi zokutshala izimali zivimbela ukutshalwa kwemali emnothweni wezwe ngokulinganisa "okungenamsoco", ngakho ukungena kwezimali zangaphandle kungase kuyancipha, kodwa lokhu akunakwenzeka ukuba kube ngukuhlanzeka komnotho.

Khuluma ngokuzenzakalelayo

Ngokuqondene namahemuhemu mayelana nokuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi ayifinyeleleki, ngokuqinisekile ayinkohliso futhi esaba. Uma sikhuluma ngokulinganisa okuphansi, bese kulesi sigaba D, okusho ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi okuzenzakalelayo okuzenzakalelayo, iRussia isesekude.

Ukulinganisa "udoti" akuyona isinqumo, ngaphezu kwalokho, isikweletu sangaphandle seRussia Federation asiyona enkulu futhi sinani nje kwe-GDP engaphezu kwezingu-10 kuphela, kanti kwamanye amazwe anezinga eliphezulu, isikweletu somphakathi singadlula i-GDP yabo. Uma kunesidingo, iRussia ingakwazi ukufeza izibopho zayo ngezindleko zegolide nezangaphandle.

Kuyini ukulinganisa "okungenamsoco" okushoyo eRussia?

Okokuqala, kufanele kushiwo ukuthi ukulinganisa "okungenamsoco" akusho ukuthi umqulu wokugcina wezwe ungena emgodini okhungethwe yinhlekelele. Ngokubhekene nokuhlolwa okungalungile kwe-solvency yaseRussia, kanye nezintengo eziphansi zamafutha, abahlaziyi balinganisela ukuwa kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-ruble nezinye izinkinga emnothweni. Nokho, entwasahlobo, i-ruble yaqinisa ngokuqinile idola, futhi amanani kawoyela aqiniswa. Uhulumeni uthatha izinyathelo ezifanele ukunqoba le nkinga.

Isibonelo, isibalo se-"ukungcola" sase-Ukraine empeleni sibonisa isimo esidabukisayo ezweni, umnotho wawo ngokuqondile uxhomeke kuma-credit credits ase-Western. Endabeni yaseRussia, konke kungashintsha. Ngokushesha isimo sizothuthuka, bese-ke ama-ejensi wokulinganisa azobukeza kabusha izilinganiso zabo ukuze zibe ngcono.