Iyini indlela Monte Carlo?

Ngaphansi indlela Monte Carlo elivame ukuqondwa ngayo njengenye indlela ukumodeliswa kwezibalo, nakho yayisekelwe nomqondo "ibhokisi elimnyama."

I Monte Carlo indlela ehilelekile ezimweni lapho ukusetshenziswa imodeli kohlaziyo lomkhuba kunzima noma kungenakwenzeka ngokuphelele (isibonelo, lokha nawurarulula imiraro theory queuing, imisebenzi yocwaningo, wafingqa ukutadisha izinqubo stochastic, njll).

Ake sihlole kabanzi indlela Monte Carlo emnothweni.

Isicelo se-indlela ukumodeliswa kwezibalo ingacaciswa kusukela kwenkululeko queuing theory. Ngakho, ake sithi ufuna ukuthola kanjani futhi eside kangaki kudingeka ulinde amakhasimende emgqeni ezithile (ekucaleni) umthamo we esitolo. Lezi izibalo, kwasekuqaleni, kudingekile ukwenza isinqumo mayelana nokuthenga ukwandisa esitolo kufanele kube. Njengoba wazi, tadisha abathengi, ngokuvamile has a okungahleliwe noma engaqinisekile, ngakho-ke, ukusatshalaliswa okuthiwa indlela isikhathi, khona-ke kukhona igebe phakathi ngamunye ezifundeni ezimbili ezilandelanayo abathengi kungenziwa ngokuzimela usethe, esekelwe ulwazi olutholakala. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isikhathi inkonzo ikhasimende ngalinye Ubuye uhlamvu okungahleliwe, ngaleyo ndlela nokusakazwa kwayo kungabuye itholiwe. Ngakho, sinesizathu inqubo ezimbili stochastic, ukuxhumana ngqo ukuthi kudala zonke.

Njengoba umkhuba ubonisa, usebenzisa zangempela Monte Carlo indlela kungaba izikhathi ngezikhathi eziningi ngokusebenzisa wonke amathuba, ebe egcina izici ezifanayo wokusabalalisa. Umphumela walokhu uyoba eyayenziwe kabusha ukudala wonke isithombe le nqubo. Khona-ke ukuphinda lokhu iphathini futhi, isikhathi ngasinye ekushintsheni izimo, kungenzeka ukuthola izibalo, uma zathathwa ngesikhathi sangempela.

Ngokufanayo, ungakwazi futhi izikhathi eziningana lokuphinda isithombe yokufakelwa ngomsebenzi cishe kunoma iyiphi esitolo, ukusebenzisa indlela Monte Carlo. Awokuzenzisa ukumodeliswa kulesi simo kungaba ukuphinda idatha langempela. Etholakala futhi ngenhla inqubo ezimbili stochastic. ekusebenzelaneni kwabo enye e umphumela wokugcina futhi bazokhipha "ithuba" cishe ukusebenza efanayo empilweni yangempela.

Ngakho-ke, indlela Monte Carlo for Research siqukethe kwezokumodela yokufakelwa uhlelo okuphindiwe siyiqaphele okungahleliwe. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi okuthiwa ukugcwaliseka ngabanye ngenye okukhulunywe ukuhlolwa njengoba kwezibalo.

Ukuze siqonde lokho okushiwo ngumuntu okungahleliwe Ukukhetha indlela okufanele umane ukusebenzisa ezivamile amadayisi. Nokho, umkhuba, njengoba umthetho, itafula izinombolo okungahleliwe asetshenziswa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinhlelo okwamanje ethandwa kakhulu futhi okhethekile kumakhompyutha kukhona phakathi Ochwepheshe ngokuthi inombolo okungahleliwe ugesi. Eqinisweni, indlela Monte Carlo ulula, ephumelelayo futhi kulula ukuyisebenzisa, elibangela yokusetshenziswa kwawo kabanzi, kokubili kwezomnotho isayensi ethile komunye umkhakha onzima.