Umqondo izintela nezimali, futhi iqiniso layo ngenxa yokushintsha komnotho

Ukuthuthukiswa yesimanje of zezibalo amasu ukuhlaziywa kwezomnotho kungaba thembeke ukuhlola onobuhle prognostic futhi interpolated izinqubo ashukumisayo futhi acacise nomqondo intela futhi imali ngenxa yokushintsha komnotho. Akusiyo ingozi le Econometrics yesimanje isetshenziswa njengethuluzi lokufeza ukusekela noma ukuphikisa ezinye izikhundla theory.

Ezweni yokucabanga kwezomnotho lufakwa phambili imiqondo eminingi ehlobene izintela Dynamics imiphumela intela, kanye kwalokho hlandla kuyini nomqondo intela futhi iqiniso yayo amamodeli eyehlukene yomnotho. Ukuhlala kugcinwe lo theory neoclassical kwezomnotho 70s. ekhulwini XX. Waba imfundiso yokuziphendukela supply. nabasekeli baso - ikakhulukazi ososayensi American zizosebenza ngoba iqiniso Leffera ucabangela intela ukusikeka kunesidingo. Abamele theory izipesheli ukubona phakathi kwezimbangela eziyinhloko ezingalindelekile ukwenyuka kakhulu kwamandla emali entela kanye nemibandela eqinile sekukhokhelwa izintela nezimali.

Kungakhathaliseki emnothweni Russian ukwanda amanani exhumene isilinganiso sentela? Ukuze siphendule lo mbuzo ungase ucabange zonke ngqo bese engaqondile eziqoqwayo njengoba abanye isilinganiso sentela siphindwe-GDP, usebenzisa izindlela kwezomnotho kanye zezibalo ukuhlaziywa.

Ekusunguleni ukuhlanganisa phakathi lezi zilinganiso kanye Inkomba intengo umthengi (CPI), kwathi umthelela oqondile yokukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla ukunikeza izintela okuqondile phakathi rates abo kanye Dynamics emali cishe akukho ukulibaziseka isikhawu (aphakeme ukuhlanganisa Coefficient ewela isikhathi nyangazonke). Ngesikhathi esifanayo, share isilinganiso izintela engaqondile kusukela GDP, isimo somnotho ngokuvamile sigudluke ngumkhiqizi kubathengi, axhunyiwe kancane eduze kuhlobene nezinga izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali.

Lesi simo sibonisa ukuthi Dynamics zentela eqondile futhi izindleko nomthelela kakhulu ngokushesha kwamanani kuka izinguquko intela engaqondile, kodwa ngenxa izinguquko ezithile futhi kakhulu nomqondo intela kanye nemali. Nokho, ukusondela Ubuhlobo akuyona sezingeni eliphezulu phakathi kwabo. Ngakho-ke ukukhula izintela, kokubili nenkhulumombiko, kancane kuphela omula kwamandla emali, indima ebalulekile lapha iyaqhubeka ukudlala ezibizayo izingxenye amazwe nezinye izinto ezidingekayo ukuze kazwelonke ukukhiqizwa ingxenye.

Ake ubuyele emuva isikhundla esibalulekile imfundiso yokuziphendukela ubudlelwane phakathi iziphakamiso ukulondoloza, ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye Ukwehla komnotho. Ukuswelakala kokusebenza ngokuhlanganyela ukonga isizathu esiyinhloko kubonakala ekunqandeni utshalomali. Hlola lokhu isikhundla theory amadili kungenzeka ekuhlaziyweni abasondelana ukuhlobana ngesilinganiso esingaba oqondile yentela kanye nezinga inzuzo imikhiqizo adayiswa. Njengomthetho, lokhu kwencika sincane kakhulu. Isimo siyefana ne abasondelana uxhumano yisabelo izintela engaqondile kusukela GDP kanye nezinga inzuzo okwesikhathi esithile. Lapha, i-value negative kuyinto okungu ejwayelekile ebonwe Ingxenye ephambene, isb elikhulu usayizi izintela ngokungaqondile, ephansi ezingeni inzuzo.

Leso simo kudalwa lapho umqondo classical yokuqoqa intela abanye siguqulwe, futhi umthwalo wentela ngokuzenzakalelayo awadlulisela umthengi yi ezilinganiselwe intengo ukufutheka komkhathi ngokuthi izindleko anda izindleko zokukhiqiza. Lokhu kungase kubonise i eyengeziwe ukuhlanganisa ukuhlaziywa kanye abasondelana ukuhlobana ezingeni izindleko ruble kwezintathu zomkhiqizo ngamunye kanye nezinga zentela ejwayelekile okhandwa ruble.

Kafushane, umthelela intela nekusebenta ukukhiqizwa kazwelonke ufanelwe ukuqashelwa okukhethekile. Jwayelekile kufanele hlonishwa njengomphakathi uhlelo intela, umqondo izintela nezimali, okuyiwona azikho izithiyo ekwabiweni kahle kwezinsiza.

Nokho, ukuhlolisiswa isimo samanje umkhuba intela kuqinisekisa lokhu okulandelayo:

a) indzima lesembili isizukulwane engaqondile izintela izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali izindleko, yingakho abacindezela ukukhiqizwa;

b) umphumela azinakwa ku amazinga oqondile intela kahle;

kwencika okuphansi phakathi kwamakhamera ocingo izinkomba komnotho omkhulu - entela kanye capital ukubuya, okuyinto ngokomthetho zakhelwe zonke izazi imodeli-Western intela eyaziwa - ikuvumela ukuba sifinyelele iziphetho imininingwane yenqubo shintsho ezweni futhi ukwehluleka noma yimiphi imizamo ngqo ukukopisha ukuba kumnotho wasekhaya.